More wealthy people leaving Clark County than moving in

The yearslong influx of wealthy people into greater Vancouver has continued, but more high-earners are also moving out.

Internal Revenue Service data shows the change came during the COVID-19 pandemic, when more high-income earners began leaving Clark County than moving in, between 2020 and 2023. Specifically, between 2021 and 2023, close to 2,000 more wealthy people left annually than moved in. (The most recent data available is 2022 to 2023.)

More high-income earners — between 10,000 and 11,000 — moved into the area between 2020 and 2023 than at any point in the 2010s, when in-migration was between 3,000 and 8,700 for those making over $200,000. (The IRS data’s highest income category is $200,000 or more.)

However, in each of those later years greater Vancouver also lost between 10,000 and 13,000 high-income earners.

Some are tracking the trend in the aftermath of Washington lawmakers passing historic business tax increases along with a millionaire’s tax (though the latter has yet to take effect).

Clark County consistently saw a net influx of individuals making more than $200,000 a year during the 2010s, according to IRS data.

“I would have expected that the pattern of (in-migration) into Clark County would not have changed,” said Scott Bailey, a consulting economist and former Southwest Washington labor economist.

He cited a widely circulated theory floated around Portland business circles that the city’s tax climate pushed residents north. But he disagrees.

“We know historically that increasing taxes on high-income folks has not led to mass migrations,” Bailey said, pointing to examples from states like Massachusetts.

Push and pull

Dominic Jones, CEO of Greener Pastures New Zealand, works with wealthy individuals wanting to immigrate to New Zealand. His company’s website gets a lot of traffic from Washington.

Jones said there are push-and-pull factors that motivate wealthy people to relocate. Unhappiness with evolving politics at home may be part of that, he added.

Interest in moving overseas has generally climbed as the world has become more mobile. But people choose their destinations for different reasons.

“The people that choose New Zealand are wanting wildly different things to the folks that choose Dubai,” he said.

Tax considerations are more of a draw for folks choosing Dubai. New Zealand, Jones said, doesn’t have particularly high or low taxes. But it lacks a capital gains tax, a wealth tax, an inheritance tax and a gift tax.

“But the data is clear that tax is not a key driver for why folks choose New Zealand,” he said.

Bailey said he can’t pinpoint what caused the change in migration for wealthy residents locally.

People fled urban centers during the pandemic. Even growth in inner suburban areas dropped during those years, while more people moved further out.

Bailey said those moving out of city centers could have been higher-income individuals — “folks who had the means and opportunity.”

Washington also approved its capital gains tax in 2021, though it faced legal hurdles until March 2023 when the Washington State Supreme Court upheld its legality.

Moving trends

There wasn’t an exodus of people across all income levels leaving Clark County, as more people overall moved into the county than out of it between 2022 and 2023.

IRS data shows around 4,600 people (from all income levels) moved into Clark County from Multnomah County, Ore., between 2022 and 2023. That county saw the most departures for Clark County, followed by Washington and Clackamas counties in Oregon, Cowlitz and then King counties. Some 2,500 other people moved into the area from California between 2022 and 2023.

Clark County residents departing the area left in largest numbers for Multnomah, Cowlitz, Washington, Clackamas and King counties, closely followed by Maricopa County — home of Phoenix, Ariz.